Signal-to-noise decomposition of commodity prices. Six-layer analysis from structural
tectonic factors through speculative froth, covering central bank demand, solar-driven
silver fundamentals, the Strait of Hormuz war premium, and five-year projections through 2030.
The Global Oil Industry: A First-Principles Analysis
March 2026
Exhaustive analysis of the world's most consequential commodity. Covers production
and consumption, OPEC+ dynamics, sovereign wealth funds, infrastructure and chokepoints,
refining, petrochemicals, historical context from Drake's well to shale, and a five-year
outlook including peak demand, EVs, and emerging producers.